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ARTHUR
BRUZZONE
|
Each day, several sixty-foot moving vans double park on the
streets of San Francisco's most exclusive neighborhoods. In most
cases, the crew is loading the van. Young professionals are
leaving the city where an internet gold rush ran unabated for
several years. Forty thousand young workers lost their jobs in
the last two years. Almost half have left San Francisco. Had they
remained, this city's unemployment rate would be near 10 percent,
rather than the current 6.5 percent. Thirteen million feet of
office space lies empty -- a ten year supply. This city, like the
country, has sobered up.
In the hip South of Market area, where internet companies
flourished, half of all office space is now empty. During the
boom, office landlords demanded several hundred thousand stock
options, in addition to absurdly high annual rent. Apartment
owners who had a dozen applicants for every rare vacancy are now
experiencing 15-25% vacancy rates.
The internet-bust, the destruction of New York's World Trade
Center, and the recent revelations of corporate gross
misrepresentations have shaken for the moment the America's
economic confidence. The economic earthquake is not over.
America's consumers are $1.6 trillion in debt. Only the housing
market has been resilient. And home equity loans have in turn
helped maintain solid retail sales. But that could change. A
weaker dollar will eventually require higher interest rates to
attract foreign capital. When the housing bubble pops, then even
the retail sector will weaken.
So is this a economic doomsday scenario?
Far from it. We are in store for a difficult time. But it will
strengthen this powerful country. The terrorist attack has
already helped to firm-up our security priorities. The criminal
enforcement of white collar crime will become a priority.
Swindling investors and selling drugs will become equivalent
crimes -- with commensurate punishment. As it should be, as it
should have been. To become profitable, a business will have to
show a true profit.
All these measure should have been obvious, but they weren't.
For ten years, following the end of the 45-year cold war, we
lived as if we had defeated our last enemy. At about the same
time, the personal computer was introduced. Futurists heralded
the beginning of a new era. We in fact became infatuated with the
future. Giant companies were built that would have future profits.
Investors invested in future earnings. Workers were paid with
options that would pay off at a future date. Then by the end of
the nineties corporate executives where under pressure to start
turning profits. Too many manipulated corporate earnings to show
just that.
But, to borrow a cry from the sixties, "the garden party is
over." First, the war is not over. America has enemies,
brutal and pathological, that target intentionally American
citizens. Second, America industry must now be effective,
efficient, and truly profitable. As for the new technologies, the
promise of future profitability will no longer command investor
excitement.
The symbol of San Francisco is the phoenix. It is now a suitable
symbol for the country. We shall rise above the current turmoil,
stronger, morally, economically and militarily. But we can only
hope that we will experience our new strength, sober. As with any
great intoxicating experience, the hangover is as painful as the
pleasure from the night before. And, a few days later, both the
binge and the hangover are bittersweet memories. You vow never to
go through it again. Let's hope we don't.
Award-winning TV producer, talk show host, and Republican leader Arthur Bruzzone has written over 150 political articles for national and regional media, and has commented on political issues for American and European television and radio networks. His articles and columns have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco Examiner, Campaign & Elections Magazine, among other publications.
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